4   2 (a) Table 1 below shows data for the environmental vulnerability of two different groups of states, the 47 Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and the other 187 countries. A Chi-squared test was used to establish whether there was a statistically significant difference in the environmental vulnerability of the SIDS and the Other States. The null hypothesis tested was: There is no significant association between the level of environmental vulnerability of a state and its status as a Small Island Developing State. The alternative hypothesis was: There is a significant association between the level of environmental vulnerability of a state and its status as a Small Island Developing State. The data for both O (the observed values) and E (the expected values) are shown below in Table 1. Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Level of vulnerability/ resilience SIDS O SIDS E SIDS (O–E)2 / E Other States O Other States E Other States (O–E)2 / E TOTAL Column 3 + Column 6 Extremely vulnerable 17 6.8 15.3 17 27.2 3.8 19.1 Highly vulnerable 17 12.3 1.8 44 48.7 0.5 2.3 Vulnerable 9 16.5 3.4 73 65.5 0.8 4.2 At risk 3 8.6 3.6 40 34.4 Resilient 1 2.8 1.2 13 11.2 0.3 1.5 TOTAL 47 47 25.3 187 187 χ2 = Table 1 Turn over 5   (i) Calculate the total for (O–E)2 / E for the ‘At risk’ category for Other States (Column 6). Answer to one decimal place. You must show your working. (2) (O–E)2 / E = .............................................................. (ii) Calculate the value of χ2, using the formula below. 2 2 O E E Answer to one decimal place. You must show your working. (2) χ2 = .............................................................. 6   (b) The result shows that the null hypothesis should be rejected and the alternative hypothesis (shown below) accepted at the 99% confidence level. Alternative hypothesis There is a significant association between the level of environmental vulnerability of a state and its status as a Small Island Developing State. Explain how this result might be used to guide further research into the environmental vulnerability of SIDS. 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(Total for Question 2 = 8 marks) Turn over 7   3 Study Figure 1 and Figure 2 in Section A of the Resource Booklet. Analyse the similarities and differences in the locations and sizes of SIDS. 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(Total for Question 3 = 8 marks) Turn over 9   4 Study Figure 3, Figure 4a and Figure 4b in Section A of the Resource Booklet. Analyse the social consequences for countries with small land areas and small populations. 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(Total for Question 4 = 8 marks) Turn over 11   5 Study the resources in Section B of the Resource Booklet. Evaluate the view that geographical isolation has been the main barrier to the sustainable development of SIDS. 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(Total for Question 5 = 18 marks) 14   You should have read the whole of the Resource Booklet, including Section C, before attempting this question. 6 Evaluate the view that without significant global action to address climate change, the future of SIDS is one of decline. 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(Total for Question 6 = 24 marks) TOTAL FOR PAPER = 70 MARKS 18   BLANK PAGE 19   BLANK PAGE 20   BLANK PAGE Turn over Paper reference   *P70937A* P70937A ©2022 Pearson Education Ltd. Q:1/1/1/1/1/1 Geography Advanced PAPER 3 9GE0/03 Time 2 hours 15 minutes Pearson Edexcel Level 3 GCE Resource Booklet Do not return this Booklet with the question paper.   2 P70937A SECTION A The characteristics of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) In 1992 the United Nations (UN) identified a group of maritime countries that faced particular challenges. Known since as ‘Small Island Developing States’ (SIDS), not all of these countries are recognised states, nor are they all actually islands (e.g. Belize). An estimated 65 million people live in SIDS, less than 1% of the global population. There is no official list of members. Most UN led SIDS projects include well over 50 countries, of which 38 are full members of the UN (Figure 1), with others being territories that still belong to the old colonial powers (e.g. the British Virgin Islands). They are usually divided into three geographical groups, Caribbean (C), Pacific (P) and the countries in the Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean and South China Sea (AIMS) (Figure 1). The Federated States of Micronesia Palau Papua New Guinea Nauru Republic of Kiribati Solomon Islands Tuvalu Samoa Tonga Fiji Vanuatu Marshall Islands Pacific SIDS The Bahamas Dominican Republic St Kitts and Nevis Antigua and Barbuda Dominica St Lucia Barbados St Vincent and the Grenadines Trinidad and Tobago Guyana Suriname Haiti Jamaica Belize Cuba Caribbean SIDS Grenada Atlantic and Indian Ocean SIDS Maldives São Tomé and Principe Seychelles Singapore Mauritius AIMS Bahrain Comoros Timor-Leste Cabo Verde Guinea -Bissau Figure 1 The 38 SIDS that are full members of the United Nations   3 Turn over P70937A The SIDS group varies in landscape, population, resources, and levels of development. The challenges faced by these states are considerable and often include: • Small populations, although some are also growing fast, placing pressure on resources • Small land areas with limited resources as a result, especially water, energy and food • Enormous marine resources within the 200 nautical miles covered by a country’s offshore Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), with 30% of the world’s oceans and seas controlled by SIDS, but a limited capacity to manage these zones • Remoteness; many SIDS, especially in the Pacific, are remote and dispersed – Kiribati is made up of 33 coral atolls spread over 3.5 million km2 – an area larger than India • High levels of out migration including more educated people (brain drain) and a reliance on remittances (money sent home by expatriates) • Limited and sometimes problematic connectivity to the global economy; this affects tourism and leads to a dependency on imports • The number of natural hazards, both tectonic and hydro-meteorological threats • Climate change, rising sea levels, ocean acidification and loss of biodiversity, e.g. loss of coral reefs C = Caribbean P = Pacific AIMS = Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean and South China Sea Land area (km 2) Agricultural area (km 2) Islands EEZ (km 2) Population (2015) Population density (per km 2) Remoteness rank (1–186) 1 is most remote Bahamas (C) 10,010 150 1,897 629,293 371,960 37 144 Haiti (C) 27,750 18,526 40 117,376 11,263,079 405 68 Jamaica (C) 10,830 4,490 47 263,283 2,768,941 256 90 Cabo Verde (AIMS) 4,030 750 36 796,840 494,401 123 80 Comoros (AIMS) 1,861 1,550 21 164,691 717,503 386 18 Maldives (AIMS) 300 70 900 916,189 338,442 1,128 46 Fiji (P) 18,270 4,276 463 1,281,122 874,472 48 7 Nauru (P) 20 4 1 308,502 10,032 502 12 Samoa (P) 2,830 350 13 131,812 188,889 67 4 Vanuatu (P) 12,190 1,870 156 827,891 247,262 20 3 Figure 2 Geographical data for 10 selected SIDS   4 P70937A The island of Malé in the Maldives The highest point in the Maldives is just 5 metres above sea level. In 2009 the Maldivian President drew attention to the country’s perilous future by holding a cabinet meeting under water. However, the Maldives remains heavily dependent on international tourism. A Jamaican resort and golf course The Caribbean SIDS are a favourite destination for American tourists visiting by cruise ship and by plane on all‑inclusive holidays. The environmental impact is negative, especially for marine environments, above all coral reefs and mangrove forests. A volcanic island in Vanuatu Most Pacific SIDS are made up of highly dispersed islands and atolls. Many of these are uninhabited and most are too remote to attract tourists. In common with many other SIDS, their experience of colonialism was almost wholly negative. Haiti after the 2010 earthquake Haiti is the poorest country in the Americas with a complex and often unhappy relationship with the USA. Twelve years after the 2010 earthquake and despite over US$13bn in aid it has still not recovered. It is regarded as a ‘fragile’ state by some analysts, by others as a victim of neo-colonialism. Figure 3 The varied landscapes of SIDS   5 Turn over P70937A Average emigration rates of SIDS are far above those of other developing countries and high-income countries. This is true for low-skilled workers (15.6%, i.e. about 13 percentage points above the average level of other developing countries) and for college graduates (50.8%, i.e. about 37 percentage points above the average level of other developing countries). SIDS with the largest brain drain rates of college graduates are Guyana (89.2%), Jamaica (84.7%), Grenada (84.3%), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (81.9%), Haiti (79.0%), Tonga (75.6%) and Samoa (73.4%). Other SIDS have no higher education facilities whatsoever. –20 –15 –10 Net migration rate, 2010–2015 Personal remittances received (as a percentage of GDP), 2010–2012 –5 0 5 Tonga Samoa St Vincent and the Grenadines Guyana Grenada Cabo Verde Fiji Jamaica Haiti Dominican Republic Trinidad and Tobago São Tomé and Principe Antigua and Barbuda Maldives Vanuatu Mauritius Saint Lucia Barbados Belize 0 5 10 15 20 25 Figure 4a Migration rates and remittances for selected SIDS   6 P70937A Small Island Developing State Region Human Development Index rank highest to lowest Barbados C 58 Mauritius AIMS 66 Trinidad and Tobago C 67 Grenada C 74 Antigua and Barbuda C 78 Saint Lucia C 86 Dominican Republic C 88 Fiji P 93 Maldives AIMS 95 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines C 97 Jamaica C 101 Tonga P 104 Samoa P 111 Guyana C 122 Cabo Verde AIMS 126 São Tomé and Principe AIMS 135 Vanuatu P 140 Timor-Leste P 141 Papua New Guinea P 155 Haiti C 170 Figure 4b Human Development Index for 20 selected SIDS, 2020   7 Turn over P70937A SECTION B The vulnerabilities of SIDS The small size of most SIDS (17 of them are smaller than 1,000 km2) is an obstacle to economic development because there is limited scope to develop economies of scale, which in turn prevents the development of a manufacturing sector. Most SIDS have narrowly based economies that depend on just a few products and resources due to their small domestic markets, distance from international markets, high production costs and limited competitiveness. This leads to an almost total dependence on imported products (including fossil fuels but also food), partially paid for by exporting any available raw materials and allowing the development of tourism, often foreign owned and controlled. SIDS are, on average, more severely indebted than other developing countries. In 2014, the SIDS’ debt to GDP ratios stood at, on average, 57% as compared to 44% in all other middle- and low-income countries. Their vulnerability also makes them unattractive for foreign investors, so some SIDS governments have offered financial services with low tax rates. In 2015 the European Union identified 30 countries as tax havens; more than half were SIDS. 2000 5 6 3 4 9 10 GDP growth rate (%) 7 8 0 1 2 2005 2010 2015 Other developing countries SIDS Key Year Figure 5 Economic growth rates for SIDS and other developing countries, 2000–2015   8 P70937A Ninety per cent of SIDS are in the tropics (Figure 6). Many are affected by extreme weather events, especially tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes). Climate variability, droughts and flooding are also features of their climate. The El Niño Southern Oscillation events also produce dramatic changes in rainfall, rising sea levels and other weather‑related phenomena. Tropical cyclone frequency Equator Key SIDS High Low Figure 6 The frequency of tropical cyclones, 1990–2015   9 Turn over P70937A SIDS Low-income countries Lower middle- income countries Upper middle- income countries High-income countries 22,621 17,647 17% Total damage in US($) millions Key Damage as a % of GDP 17% 7% 6% 3% 156,438 453,034 1,181,470 Figure 7 The costs of tectonic and hydro-meteorological hazards for selected groups of countries, 2000–2020   10 P70937A SIDS were especially exposed to the 2020/21 collapse in international travel (Figure 8). Low-income countries experienced, on average, a 1% fall in their GDPs but SIDS suffered a 4.7% fall. Country Tourism as % of GDP, 2019 Change (%) in GDP, 2019–2021 Government debt as % of GDP, 2019 Maldives (AIMS) 66 –17 48 Seychelles (AIMS) 66 –16 198 St Kitts and Nevis (C) 63 –16 20 Grenada (C) 56 –14 59 Vanuatu (P) 48 –12 46 Cabo Verde (AIMS) 46 –12 89 St Vincent and the Grenadines (C) 46 –12 38 Antigua and Barbuda (C) 45 –11 34 St Lucia (C) 43 –11 35 Palau (P) 43 –11 31 Bahamas (C) 40 –10 194 Fiji (P) 40 –10 17 Figure 8 The impact of a decline in tourism on the 12 most affected SIDS   11 Turn over P70937A SECTION C The challenges to come Almost all SIDS depend heavily on fossil fuels for power production, the desalination of water, but also transport which includes tourists, the main source of foreign exchange, and the exploitation of marine resources. Some SIDS, for example Bahrain and Trinidad and Tobago, produce and export fossil fuels but most consume very little because of their level of development and their weak infrastructure. The vast majority have carbon emissions levels <5t per annum per capita. Although SIDS are among the least responsible of all nations for climate change (Figure 9), they are likely to suffer strongly from its negative effects, and in some cases could even become uninhabitable. No data Key 20.1 to >50 15.1 to 20 10.1 to 15 5.1 to 10 0 to 5 Figure 9 Carbon emissions (tonnes per capita) by country, 2017   12 P70937A Rising carbon emissions are widely blamed for an increase in natural disasters, especially over the past 50 years as the enhanced greenhouse effect has accelerated (Figure 10). The cost of these disasters is counted in billions of US$, each year. For this reason, SIDS were among the first to call for putting climate change on the agenda of the UN Security Council. 1960 0 10 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 5 15 20 25 30 Number of natural disasters Year Key Number of natural disasters in SIDS Five-year moving average Figure 10 The number of natural disasters impacting SIDS, 1960–2015   13 P70937A Sea level rise is by no means the only future challenge for the SIDS. However, for some, it is the most pressing. Some experts argue that we are already past the point of no return with positive feedback loops and tipping points reached, making accelerating global warming unavoidable. Since the 1970s the UN has organised a series of global conferences to address the challenges of climate change (Figure 11). In 1992 SIDS campaigned successfully in the UN for a recognition of their special needs in confronting climate change. The UN has funded the US$60 million Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change (PACC) project involving 13 Pacific SIDS. The aim is to enhance the capacity of the participating countries to adapt to climate change in key development sectors such as coastal zone management, food security and water. The UN is also funding the US$35 million five-year Pacific Islands Greenhouse Gas Abatement through Renewable Energy Project (PIGGAREP) project. It aims to reduce the growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions through the promotion of renewable energy. In Fiji, for example, 200 solar home systems have been installed in various remote locations and four schools have been equipped with biogas digesters. 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 0.0 0.6 1.2 –0.6 Difference from 20th century average temperature (°C) Carbon dioxide concentration (ppm) 300 280 320 340 360 380 400 420 Paris 2015 Copenhagen 2009 Kyoto Agreement 1997 Earth Summit, Rio 1992 World Climate Conference 1979 Year Figure 11 Changing global temperatures and CO2 concentrations with selected global environmental conferences   14 P70937A BLANK PAGE   15 P70937A BLANK PAGE   16 P70937A BLANK PAGE Acknowledgements Pearson Education Ltd gratefully acknowledges all following sources used in preparation of this paper: Figure 1 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-small-island-developing-states-SIDS-geographical- distribution-of-SIDS_fig1_332076404 Figure 3 (Source: ©Shahee Ilyas/Alamy Stock Photo & © AlissaEverett/Alamy Stock Photo & © incamerastock/Alamy Stock Photo & ©Tommy E Trenchard/Alamy Stock Photo) Figure 4 Sourced from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/5104333SID_%20 2014_%20wallchart.pdf Figure 5 https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/9789264287648-6-en/index.html?itemId=/content/ component/9789264287648-6-en Figure 6 & Figure 11 https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/9789264266919-en.pdf?expires=1603970744 &id=id&accname=guest&checksum=E7F38A7FD2795D6A187524BF03A36D59 Figure 7 https://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/6082/Small_islands,_big_threats.html Figure 8 Sourced from https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/un-desa-policy-brief-64- the-covid-19-pandemic-puts-small-island-developing-economies-in-dire-straits/ Figure 9 https://unctad.org/news/impact-covid-19-tourism-small-island-developing-states