Turn over 7 5 Study the resources in Section B of the Resource Booklet. Evaluate the view that the exploitation of resources in the Arctic and Antarctica will create more costs than benefits. 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(Total for Question 5 = 18 marks) Turn over 9 You should have read the whole of the Resource Booklet before attempting this question, including Section C. 6 Evaluate the view that the Arctic is more likely to be a focus of both short-term and long-term political conflict than Antarctica. 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(Total for Question 6 = 24 marks) TOTAL FOR PAPER = 70 MARKS 11 BLANK PAGE 12 BLANK PAGE Turn over *P66495A* Paper reference Time P66495A ©2021 Pearson Education Ltd. 1/1/1/1/1/1 Geography Advanced PAPER 3 2 hours 15 minutes 9GE0/03 Resource Booklet Do not return this Booklet with the question paper. Pearson Edexcel Level 3 GCE 2 P66495A SECTION A To the ends of the Earth The Arctic is the area that lies north of the Arctic Circle. The circle more or less marks the southern boundary of the region that experiences 24 hours of sunlight in summer and 24 hours of darkness in winter. Most of the continent of Antarctica lies within the southern hemisphere equivalent: the Antarctic Circle (see Figure 1). The Arctic and Antarctic are contrasting in that the Arctic is an ocean almost completely surrounded by land whereas Antarctica is a continent completely surrounded by ocean. The Antarctic continent and the Arctic Ocean are approximately the same size, at 15 million km2. They include the two major ice sheets on the planet. Antarctica has approximately 26.5 million km3 and Greenland 2.8 million km3 of ice. Together this ice locks up about 70% of the Earth’s freshwater, and if it melted would raise sea levels by 66 metres. The climates of the two regions have similarities but also differences. Both poles are very dry and relatively cold. However, Arctic summer temperatures can reach 10° C, whilst on the thick high-altitude ice sheet temperatures stay considerably below 0° C. In both regions there have been significant changes in average temperatures (see Figures 2, 3 and 4). Arctic Circle 66.33° N Antarctic Circle 66.33° S 180° 60°W Figure 1 3 Turn over P66495A 1980 2000 2015 2 1 0 −1 −2 Difference from average temperature (°C) Arctic Global 1980–2015 average Figure 2 Global and Arctic temperature changes, 1980–2015 4 P66495A Figure 3 Mean annual Antarctic temperature changes, 1980–2016 Temperature Trend (°C/year) -0.1 -0.05 +0.05 0 +0.1 5 Turn over P66495A Sea-ice is found in both regions but is rarely thicker than 2 metres. The area covered by sea-ice varies according to the seasons, and has varied over both historic and geological time. In both hemispheres sea-ice can reach an area of between 12–15 million km2 (see Figure 4). 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1.60 1.20 0.80 0.40 0.00 −0.40 −0.80 −1.20 −1.60 Sea-ice extent, relative to 1980 to 2015 (million sq km) Antarctic 1980–2015 average Arctic Figure 4 Sea-ice changes in the Arctic and Antarctic, 1980–2015 6 P66495A The impact of climate change has been significant in both polar regions and the long- term impacts of changes in Antarctica will be particularly challenging (see Figure 5). However, recently its impact has been especially notable in the Arctic. This is partly because of its greater geopolitical significance and partly because 2m thick sea-ice is much more vulnerable to global warming than large and very thick ice-sheets. Most climate models predict that summer sea-ice in the Arctic will disappear by the end of this century (see Figure 6). Figure 5 Antarctic changes 7 Turn over P66495A Figure 6 Past and future summer Arctic sea-ice 8 P66495A SECTION B People and Resources About 4 million people live within the Arctic Circle, which has been settled for at least 10,000 years. Indigenous peoples form a significant proportion of the Arctic populations of most of the countries with some part of their land mass inside the Arctic Circle: Norway, Russia, Greenland (Denmark), the USA and Canada (see Figure 8). Antarctica was discovered in the first half of the nineteenth century and has no permanent population. It has a large number of polar research centres that are ‘home’ to between 1,000 and 5,000 scientists according to the season. There is also, controversially, a growing tourist industry that attracted over 50,000 visitors in 2019 (see Figure 7). Figure 7 Antarctic tourism Both regions have enormous mineral resources, not least oil and gas reserves. These have been inaccessible partly because of the technical and climatic challenges. At present, it is the Arctic resources that are attracting most interest (see Figure 8). However, Antarctic waters have some of the richest and least exploited fisheries in the world. Antarctica’s continental shelf is geologically very similar to the richest oil and gas bearing strata found in Australia and South Africa, once part of the same super continent as Antarctica. The Antarctic land mass probably has significant mineral resources, but with current technology they are beyond reach. 9 Turn over P66495A 100 50–99 30–49 10–29 <10 Indigenous Inuit population Indigenous Sami population North Pole ARCTIC OCEAN RUSSIA Siberia Greenland Sea ICELAND GREENLAND (to Denmark) ALASKA (to United States) FINLAND SVALBARD (to Norway) Chukchi Sea East Siberian Sea Disko Bay LOMONOSOV RIDGE Areas where oil and gas might be discovered, showing the probability of making a discovery in this location as a % Key: Agreed national offshore boundaries 200-nautical mile limit ARCTIC CIRCLE Figure 8 Oil and gas resources in the Arctic 10 P66495A Amongst the most significant ‘resources’ that may result from the changing environment of the Arctic is a possible new shorter trade route between East Asia and Europe. This is of value not just to Russia but also to China and Japan. It is estimated that the new route through the Arctic would reduce transport costs by as much as US$ 120 trillion a year. 35 days via northeast passage 48 days via Suez Canal Key: Suez Canal ATLANTIC OCEAN PACIFIC OCEAN INDIAN OCEAN Figure 9 Trade routes between Asia and Europe 11 Turn over P66495A SECTION C Power and borders Antarctica is unique because no one country has control of its territory or its resources. Despite the claims made in the first half of the 20th century (see Figure 10) the Antarctic Treaty of 1961 established the continent as international, not national. Initially signed by 12 ‘local’ southern hemisphere countries and northern hemisphere countries that had played a role in its exploration, it now has 53 members. The aims of the treaty are to: • ensure that it is only exploited for peaceful purposes • promote international scientific cooperation • set aside disputes and claims over territorial sovereignty. There are currently 70 permanent research stations scattered across the continent of Antarctica. All the major superpowers are represented. The treaty has yet to be tested and there are no powers of enforcement should it be breached in the future. It is due to be reviewed in 2048. 12 P66495A Chinese research station US research station Russian research station Other research station Marine protected area (MPA) Ice shelf Key: King George Island Larsen Ice Shelf South Orkney Islands southern shelf MPA SOUTHERN OCEAN 0° 60th parallel Antarctic Circle SOUTHERN OCEAN Ross Sea Ross Sea region MPA SOUTHERN OCEAN Krill research zone SOUTHERN OCEAN Weddell Sea Ronne Ice Shelf Ross Ice Shelf Thwaites Glacier Amundsen-Scott, the US research station, has been at the South Pole since 1956 Fifth Chinese research station under construction on Inexpressible Island Figure 10 Territorial claims and research stations in the Antarctic, 2015 13 Turn over P66495A The laws governing the oceans are complex. All countries have territorial sovereignty over the first 200 nautical miles of sea bed off their coastline, called the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). Beyond the EEZs, the sea belongs to no nation. However, the Law of the Sea allows some nations to extend their claims if their continental shelf extends into international waters beyond their EEZ. Under this clause, Russia has claimed the seabed and the marine resources around the Lomonosov ridge, an underwater mountain ridge crossing the Arctic (see Figure 11). In the case of Antarctica with no territorial sovereignty and its nearest land neighbour nearly 1,000 km away, its coastal waters are also international. Key: Arctic territorial claims Beyond 200-nautical-mile limit RUSSIA ARCTIC CIRCLE – 66°33N GREENLAND (to Denmark) PACIFIC OCEAN Bering Sea Lomonosov ridge DENMARK SVALBARD (to Norway) ATLANTIC OCEAN FAROES (to Denmark) Agreed offshore national boundaries 200-nautical-mile limit North Pole Denmark Canada United States Russia Norway Unclaimed ARCTIC OCEAN CANADA ALASKA (to United States) NORWAY UNCLAIMED Figure 11 Territorial claims in the Arctic 14 P66495A With by far the longest Arctic coastline Russia has the most to gain from the opening up of the Arctic Ocean. Along with other regional powers it has militarised the region, reviving old bases and opening new ones. In the opinion of some, the Arctic is the next battleground in the Cold War (see Figure 12). ASIA NORTH AMERICA PACIFIC OCEAN ATLANTIC OCEAN ARCTIC OCEAN North Pole USA CANADA NORWAY RUSSIA GREENLAND DENMARK ARCTIC CIRCLE USA Norway Denmark/Greenland Russia Canada Key: Arctic military bases Figure 12 Military bases in the Arctic 15 P66495A BLANK PAGE 16 P66495A BLANK PAGE Pearson Education Ltd gratefully acknowledges all following sources used in preparation of this paper: Figure 2 (Source: https://mashable.com/2016/12/13/warmest-year-arctic-ice-melt-report/?europe=true) Figure 3 (Source: NOAA Climate.gov) Figure 4 (Source: NOAA Climate.gov) Figure 5 (Source: Proceedings from the National Academy of Sciences) Figure 6 (Source: https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/future-arctic-shipping) Figure 7 (Source: Joe Sohm/Visions of America / Contributor/Getty Images & Michel Setboun / Contributor/ Getty Images) Figure 12 (Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/the-political-arctic/)