Turn over 9 5 Study Section B in the Resource Booklet. Evaluate the view that international trade is the main factor in the success of the Japanese economy. 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(Total for Question 5 = 18 marks) Turn over 13 You should have read the whole of the Resource Booklet, including Section C, before attempting this question. 6 Evaluate the view that Japan’s status as a significant global power is unsustainable. 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(Total for Question 6 = 24 marks) TOTAL FOR PAPER = 70 MARKS Pearson Edexcel Level 3 GCE *P58336A* Turn over Paper Reference 9GE0/03 Geography Advanced Paper 3 Resource Booklet Do not return this Resource Booklet with the question paper. Afternoon (Time: 2 hour 15 minutes) Thursday 13th June 2019 P58336A ©2019 Pearson Education Ltd. 1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1 2 P58336A BLANK PAGE 3 Turn over P58336A SECTION A Japan – a hazardous place Japan is an archipelago made up of four main islands: Kyushu, Shikoku, Honshu, and Hokkaido. Honshu is the largest and most highly populated and provides over 80% of Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 26% of Japan’s total population of 127 million live in the Greater Tokyo region on Honshu. With an average population density of 340 per km2 Japan is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. The country is subject to many natural hazards; to earthquakes and associated tsunami, but also eruptions from its 110 active volcanoes – 47 of these pose an imminent threat. Japan’s geologic history as an island-arc system means that it has no natural mineral resources. With its mountainous interior and steep slopes, over 60% of the country is forested and very little is available for arable farming and food production. Despite these challenges Japan has the world’s third largest economy with very high standards of living. It has one of the healthiest populations resulting in the longest life expectancy globally. 4 P58336A Kuril Trench N Russia North Korea South Korea China 0 200 km 4000 2000 1500 1000 500 100 50 0 -100 -200 -500 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000 -5000 -6000 -7000 -8000 -9000 -10000 Height above sea-level and depth below sea-level in metres Figure 1 Japan in its regional setting 5 Turn over P58336A Eurasian Plate Moment Magnitude Scale (MMS) = 4 = 5 = 6 = 7 = 8 0 - 29 Depth (km) 30 - 79 80 - 149 150 - 299 300 - 700 Okhotsk Plate Pacific Plate Philippine Sea Plate N 100km Figure 2 Location and depth of large earthquakes in Japan and its surrounding region, 1960-2015 The Japanese archipelago (islands) lie at the junction of four tectonic plates; the Pacific and the Philippine Sea oceanic plates and the Okhotsk and the Eurasian continental plates. There are many fault planes where frequent earthquakes are generated by the subduction of the Philippine and the Pacific plates. 20% of all global earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater (MMS scale) occur in and around Japan with 30 of these events taking place in the past century. 6 P58336A Eurasian Plate Okhotsk Plate Pacific Plate Philippine Sea Plate 1994 8.2 (11) 2011 9.1 (>27,000) 2004 6.8 (68) 1993 7.8 (230) 1983 7.7 (104) 2008 7.2 (23) 2007 6.8 (15) 1984 6.8 (29) 1995 7.3 (6,437) 0 0.1 3 6 26 100% Hypothesized fault planes Tokai Tonankai Nankai 100km Probability of an earthquake of MMS 6 or greater in the next 30 years Fault plane Key Location of largest earthquakes since 1983 N Year Magnitude (Number of people dead or missing) Information about earthquakes Figure 3 A map of earthquake risk Although Japan is widely acknowledged as the ‘model’ state for its level of hazard preparedness and mitigation, this comes at a high economic cost and is not without weaknesses. For example, it is estimated that over 25% of all buildings in the Nankai region (Honshu) have inadequate earthquake resistance. The most recent catastrophic earthquake (2011 Tohoku) devastated the Japanese economy. Not only did the resulting tsunami kill nearly 30,000 people and displace about 500,000, it also caused the most serious nuclear accident since Chernobyl (Ukraine) at Fukushima. Additionally, it destroyed over 150,000 buildings and cost over $360 billion in short- term and longer-term economic damage. The global economy was disrupted as the production of vital parts manufactured in Japan ceased causing a bottleneck in the global supply chain for companies as diverse as Apple, Boeing and Nissan. 7 Turn over P58336A Tokyo 0-0.9 1-1.9 2-3.9 4-7.9 8-14.9 15-29.9 30-59.9 60-119.9 120-239.9 240-479.9 480-1000 1000> Population density per km² N 100km Figure 4 Population density in Japan 8 P58336A SECTION B Demography, Energy and the Economy Japan is unusual, although not unique, amongst the world’s largest economies in having a declining population. Estimates suggest that unless current trends are reversed the population will decline by up to a third by 2060 (see Figure 5). The population is also ageing faster than any other country (see Figure 5) with an estimated 19 million over 80 by 2060. The reasons for this are low fertility rates and a cultural resistance to allowing in-migration to compensate. A recent World Bank report points out the problems of meeting the higher social costs of caring for the elderly with a shrinking work-force as well as a fall in domestic demand for consumer products. A few optimistic economists suggest that robotisation makes a smaller work force desirable. Population in millions Year Age 65+ Age 15-64 Age 0-14 140 120 100 80 60 20 40 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Figure 5 Past, present and projected future changes in the structure of Japan’s population 9 Turn over P58336A Japan’s economic system contrasts with that of most of its competitors. 90% of the employees of TNC’s such as Sony and Toyota are lifetime employees and the companies often provide their own schools, hospitals and retirement homes. Japanese workers have a reputation for working very long hours with 80-hour weeks not uncommon. However, the gap between their wages and that of their bosses is the lowest of the major economies. In the 1950s Japan developed its manufacturing base with a policy of import substitution industrialisation (ISI). ISI involved the government imposing high tariffs on imports making them expensive so replacing previously imported goods such as cars with Japan’s own ‘home-made’ products often with government subsidies to make them even more competitive. Once these home markets were secured, Japan began to promote free-trade policies so that it could sell its goods overseas (see Figure 6a and Figure 6b). Exports by main commodity group % 2016 Agricultural products: 1.6 Fuels and mining products: 4.3 Manufactures: 87.2 Other: 6.9 Exports by main destination % 2016 United States of America: 20.2 European Union: 11.4 Taiwan: 6.1 China: 17.6 Korea, Republic of: 7.2 Other: 37.5 Agricultural products: 11.3 Fuels and mining products: 29.4 Manufactures: 57.1 Other: 2.2 Imports by main commodity group % 2016 Imports by main country of origin % 2016 China: 25.8 United States of America: 11.4 Korea, Republic of: 4.1 European Union: 12.4 Australia: 5.0 Other: 41.3 Figure 6a Japan’s trade profile, 2016 10 P58336A Japan ranks 4th globally for the value of its exports and 5th for its imports – exporting US$644 bn and importing US$606 bn in 2016. Japan has a deserved reputation for innovative hi-tech products especially in the development of robotics and renewable energy technology. Top 5 Exports Top 5 Imports Commodity Value in US$bn Commodity Value in US$bn Motor cars 92 Oil and petroleum 51 Parts for motor vehicles 32 Liquified natural gas 34 Electronic circuits 24 Electronic circuits 17 Laser machines 13 Medicines 17 Electronic machines 12 Coal 17 Figure 6b Japan’s leading exports and imports by value, 2016 11 Turn over P58336A Japan began its nuclear power programme in 1954 planning to supply at least 50 % of the country’s energy needs by 2000. Initially using imported US technology, they have rapidly developed their own expertise. The Fukushima accident caused by the 2011 tsunami led to the shutdown of almost all of Japan’s nuclear power plants but in 2015 the decision was made to restart that programme alongside significant research spending on renewable energy resources. 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TWh (terrawatthours) Fukushima nuclear accident: March 11, 2011 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Year ended 2015 Government proposal for 2030 Year Natural gas Coal Petroleum and other liquids Hydroelectricity and other renewables Nuclear 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Figure 7 Japan’s past and future energy mix 12 P58336A SECTION C Japan – rising or falling in the superpower stakes? Country Overall ranking for globalisation Ranked by Economic factors Ranked by Social factors Ranked by Political factors USA 27 54 30 19 Japan 39 78 48 34 Russia 48 125 52 20 China 71 121 81 44 Brazil 73 124 106 9 India 107 143 147 22 Figure 8 The globalisation rankings (on the KOF index) for six superpowers and emerging superpowers, 2016 United States China Russia Saudi Arabia India France United Kingdom Japan Germany South Korea Italy Australia Brazil UAE Israel 611.0 215.0 69.2 63.7 55.9 55.7 48.3 46.1 41.1 36.8 27.9 24.6 23.7 22.8 18.0 2016 spending ($ bn) % share of global defense expenditure 36.0 13.0 4.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 Figure 9 Defence expenditure for the world’s top 15 military powers, 2016 13 Turn over P58336A 2015 2016 2017 UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY UNITED STATES FRANCE CANADA AUSTRALIA SWITZERLAND JAPAN SWEDEN NETHERLANDS FRANCE UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES GERMANY CANADA JAPAN SWITZERLAND AUSTRALIA SWEDEN NETHERLANDS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 Figure 10 A ‘soft’ power league table showing changes in global influence measuring diplomacy, culture, education and other factors, 2015-2017 London New York Tokyo Paris Singapore Seoul Hong Kong Amsterdam Berlin Vienna 0 200 400 600 1,000 Score 800 1,200 1,400 1,600 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Economy Liveability Research and Development Environment Cultural Interaction Accessibility Figure 11 The results of a business survey ranking the top ten global cities in 2017 14 P58336A In assessing the risks from five hazards (river flooding, earthquake, wind storm, storm surge and tsunami), insurance companies have calculated that Japan has three cities in the top ten at risk globally for the number of people affected (killed, injured or displaced). In terms of economic losses these three Japanese cities fill the first three places globally with potential GDP losses as high as 5% of the annual total. City or city region Total population potentially affected (in millions) Tokyo (Japan) 57.1 Manila (Philippines) 34.6 Pearl River Delta (China) 34.5 Osaka-Kobe (Japan) 32.1 Jakarta (Indonesia) 27.7 Nagoya (Japan) 22.9 Kolkata (India) 17.9 Shanghai (China) 16.7 Los Angeles (USA 16.4 Tehran (Iran) 15.6 Figure 12 Predicted impacts for the world’s 10 most hazardous cities and city regions 15 P58336A BLANK PAGE 16 P58336A BLANK PAGE Figure 1 - Source from: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Topography-and-main-geographical-regions- of-Japan-modified-from-Editorial-Group-for_fig3_308023935 Figure 3 - Shake-up time for Japanese seismology’, Robert J. GellerCopyright © 2011, Springer Nature Figure 4 - Sourced from: © popdensitymap.ucoz.ru Figure 7 - Sourced from: U.S. Energy Information Administration Every effort has been made to contact copyright holders to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. Pearson Education Ltd. will, if notified, be happy to rectify any errors or omissions and include any such rectifications in future editions.