6 3 Study Table 1 on Page 4 of the Question Paper and Figure 2 in Section A of the Resource Booklet, both of which show data for the 10 ASEAN countries. 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(Total for Question 3 = 8 marks) Turn over 7 4 Study Figure 3 in Section A of the Resource Booklet. 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(Total for Question 4 = 8 marks) 8 5 Study Section B and Section C of the Resource Booklet. Evaluate the role of superpowers in the development of the Southeast Asian region. 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(Total for Question 5 = 18 marks) Turn over 11 You should have read the whole of the Resource Booklet, including Section D, before attempting this question. 6 Evaluate the view that climate change and natural hazards pose the most serious threat to the economic, social and political stability of Southeast Asia. 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(Total for Question 6 = 24 marks) TOTAL FOR PAPER = 70 MARKS 14 BLANK PAGE 15 BLANK PAGE 16 BLANK PAGE Paper Reference 9GE0/03 Do not return this Resource Booklet with the question paper. Thursday 14 June 2018 – Afternoon Resource Booklet Geography Advanced Paper 3 Pearson Edexcel Level 3 GCE P52373A ©2018 Pearson Education Ltd. 1/1/1/1/1/1 *P52373A* Turn over 2 P52373A Contrasts and challenges in Southeast Asia SECTION A ASEAN – A free trade bloc ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) is a free trade bloc that was formed in 1967. The founder members were Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The aims were to: • Improve economic growth through greater integration of their economies • Encourage social progress through improvements in education and health provision • Improve regional security • Provide a mechanism for resolving regional disputes. Since its foundation it has expanded, adding Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (Burma) and Vietnam to its membership. Also, it has broadened its aims to include: • Protection of the environment • Acting as a counterbalance to neighbouring superpowers, China and India • A possible movement towards a common currency similar to the Euro. Indonesia Singapore Brunei Philippines Cambodia Laos Taiwan Japan North Korea South Korea Vietnam Malaysia Thailand Myanmar India China Russia Australia Figure 1 The location of the ASEAN member states 3 Turn over P52373A The member states of ASEAN have complex histories with frontiers largely established in colonial times and often unrelated to ethnic, geographic or historic divisions. With significant physical barriers both between states and within them, there has been little regional unity. In fact, there is a long history of disputes between the states which has continued until now, despite membership of ASEAN. There are significant social, economic and political differences between the 10 member states. CAM 5.8 INO 5.8 LAO 4.6 MAL 9.5 ASEAN countries World average (7.6) MYA 4.6 PHI 8.9 SIN 10.1 THA 6.6 VIE 5.5 BRU 8.6 EDUCATION Years of schooling CAM 63.6 INO 69.8 LAO 67.8 MAL 74.5 ASEAN countries World average (70.1) MYA 65.7 PHI 69.0 SIN 81.2 THA 74.3 VIE 75.4 BRU 78.1 HEALTH Life expectancy CAM 15.5 INO 31.0 LAO 18.3 MAL 66.2 ASEAN countries World average (46.7) MYA 4.2 PHI 34.7 SIN 93.4 THA 48.4 VIE 38.5 BRU 77.9 GOVERNANCE/RULE OF LAW Higher scores = Stronger governance and rule of law BRU = Brunei CAM = Cambodia INO = Indonesia LAO = Laos MAL = Malaysia MYA = Myanmar PHI = Philippines SIN = Singapore THA = Thailand VIE = Vietnam Key to countries Figure 2 Selected social and political data for the ASEAN countries 4 P52373A • Globalisation (as measured by the KOF index) varies from Singapore which ranks 6th to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, that are amongst the least globalised states in the world. • Corruption, as measured by the Index of Perceived Corruption, is equally diverse with Singapore, once again, topping the list having very low levels of corruption whilst, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam are amongst the most corrupt states in the world. • In all 10 ASEAN countries, the GINI coefficient for both income and wealth inequalities are high (between 0.34 in Laos to 0.45 in Singapore), and rising year by year. • There are also significant economic and social variations within most member states with urban areas growing rapidly at between 2% and 5% per year. • Today, an estimated 45.8% of the region’s population live in urban areas. In 1950, this was only 15.4%. • Urbanisation rates are rapid as rural economies change from subsistence farming to more commercial agriculture. • Port cities; Singapore, Manila (Philippines), Bangkok (Thailand), Jakarta (Indonesia), Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) and Hanoi (Vietnam), connected to global markets, are especially important and have become major economic centres. 5 Turn over P52373A Recent improvements in infrastructure have begun to improve connectivity between these very diverse economies. Funding from IGOs, including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), has improved interconnections and interdependencies have grown. Other significant investors include the two ‘local superpowers’, India and China. These are engaged in planning a rare co-operative venture in establishing the BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar) multimodal corridor between India and China linking the Indian to the Pacific Ocean by road, rail and telecommunications. Nonetheless some areas remain ‘switched off’ and poorly connected. Kilometres N Spratly Islands Figure 3 Interconnections between the ASEAN countries 6 P52373A SECTION B Trade Matters The members of ASEAN have established trade without tariffs both within their trade bloc and with significant regional neighbours, most notably China. Others 21.70% Intra-ASEAN 24.20% Australia and New Zealand 3.10% Canada 0.50% China 14.00% EU 9.80% India 2.70% Japan 9.60% South Korea 5.40% Russia 0.80% USA 8.20% Figure 4 The trading partners of the ASEAN free trade bloc • The level of intra-ASEAN trade (trade between members of ASEAN) is relatively low when compared with other trading blocs – for example intra-EU trade is over 70% of their total trade. • There is also variation from country to country both in the direction of trade and the goods traded (see Figure 5). 7 Turn over P52373A 1 2 3 4 5 Brunei Japan ASEAN South Korea China EU Cambodia ASEAN China USA EU Japan Indonesia ASEAN Japan China EU South Korea Laos ASEAN China EU Japan South Korea Malaysia ASEAN China Japan EU USA Myanmar ASEAN China Japan India South Korea Philippines ASEAN Japan USA China EU Singapore ASEAN EU China USA Japan Thailand ASEAN Japan China EU USA Vietnam China ASEAN EU Japan USA Figure 5 The five most important trading partners of individual ASEAN members 8 P52373A Brunei 0.70% Cambodia 1.00% Indonesia 15.20% Laos 0.30% Malaysia 10.00% Myanmar 2.10% Philippines 3.20% Singapore 49.60% Thailand 10.60% Vietnam 7.30% Figure 6 The share of Foreign Direct Investment received by individual ASEAN member countries 9 Turn over P52373A 3.14% Japan 0.00% 0.50% Other Asian countries ASEAN Countries 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 2.77% South Korea 2.04% Singapore 1.09% China 0.72% India 0.50% Malaysia 0.19% Vietnam 0.12% Philippines 0.08% Myanmar 0.07% Indonesia 0.05% Cambodia 0.04% Laos 0.02% Brunei 0.20% Thailand Figure 7 Average expenditure on Research and Development as a % of GDP for ASEAN countries and selected others 10 P52373A SECTION C Superpower issues • The South China Sea is one of the busiest in the world but also one of the most contested. • China claims possession of two groups of islands ownership of which, under international maritime law, gives control of the waters around them but this claim is disputed by several ASEAN members and the USA, and was rejected by the international courts. • Since 1995, joint naval exercises have been conducted annually between the USA and seven out of the ten ASEAN members. • There is tension between China, ASEAN members and the USA, not least because over $6 trillion of trade is shipped across this sea but also because of the potential for huge oil and gas finds in its shallow waters. • For some, this is the most serious global ‘hotspot’ and poses a real threat for world peace. 11 Turn over P52373A N 0 500 km Capital city Figure 8 The contested South China Sea 12 P52373A SECTION D Environmental challenges: past, present and future • Southeast Asia is exposed to almost all types of natural hazards. • In recent years, major disasters have included the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004, Cyclone Nargis in 2008, the Luzon Earthquake in 2009 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. • Southeast Asia is highly vulnerable to natural hazards because: 1. a large proportion of the population and economic activity is concentrated in lowland areas and along coastlines 2. the region is heavily reliant on agriculture for livelihoods 3. there is a high dependence on natural resources and forestry 4. the level of extreme poverty remains high. Country Earthquake Flood Landslide Drought Storm (Typhoon/ Cyclone) Volcano Forest fire Tsunami Brunei X X X X X X Cambodia X XXX X XX X X Indonesia XXX XXX XXX XX XX XXX XX XXX Laos X XXX XX XX XX X X Malaysia X XXX XX X X XX X Myanmar XX XXX XX XX XXX X X Philippines XXX XXX XXX XX XXX XX X X Singapore X XX X Thailand X XXX XX XX XX X X Vietnam X XXX XX XX XXX X X XXX = High Risk    XX = Moderate Risk    X = Low Risk Figure 9 Disaster matrix for the ASEAN countries 13 P52373A • The vulnerability to, and impact of, climate change is a major concern to ASEAN both because of its direct impact in terms of sea-level rise but also the strong likelihood that it will increase the risk of disasters. • A study carried out by Asian Development Bank (ADB) revealed that the mean temperature in the region increased by 0.3° Celsius per decade between 1951 and 2010 whilst precipitation has fallen and sea levels have risen 1 to 3 mm per year. • The same study projects a 4.8° rise in mean annual temperature and a 700 mm rise in mean sea level by 2100. • A rise in sea level would result in major problems for many of ASEAN’s large coastal cities, such as Jakarta, Bangkok and Manila. • Heat waves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones have also become more intense and more frequent. • Projections of economic losses include a decline in rice yield potential of up to 50% by 2100 and a loss of 6.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) each year until the end of this century. 0.00 - 0.06 0.07 - 0.11 0.12 - 0.15 0.16 - 0.20 0.21 - 0.25 0.26 - 0.31 0.32 - 0.39 0.40 - 0.49 0.50 - 0.66 0.67 - 1.00 Climate Change Vulnerability Myanmar Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Brunei Low High N Kilometres Figure 10 Climate Change Vulnerability across the ASEAN region (no data available for Myanmar) 14 P52373A BLANK PAGE 15 P52373A BLANK PAGE 16 P52373A BLANK PAGE Pearson Education Ltd. gratefully acknowledges all following sources used in preparation of this paper: Figure 1 - Sourced from: http://www.seawapa.co/2013/01/asian-economic-community-by-2015.html Figure 3 - Sourced from: https://www.paragkhanna.com/home/2016/4/1/asean-map Figure 8 - U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of State, Middlebury College, National Geographic Figure 10 - Sourced from: https://www.idrc.ca/sites/default/files/sp/Documents%20EN/climate-change-vulnerability- mapping-sa.pdf Every effort has been made to contact copyright holders to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. Pearson Education Ltd. will, if notified, be happy to rectify any errors or omissions and include any such rectifications in future editions.